The Northwest Florida region’s retail sales maintained their upward trend in Q1 2002, standing in sharp contrast to the mild recession much of the nation experienced over the past months. Both the four Northwest Florida MSAs and the overall region of 16 counties enjoyed substantial growth in retail sales in the first quarter of 2002 compared to the same period of last year.

The seasonally adjusted taxable sales for the four Northwest Florida MSAs (Graph 15B) shows that retail sales in Q1 2002 reached $3,173 million, 2.8 percent higher than Q1 2001. The simple forecast suggests that this trend will continue in the next quarter. The actual taxable sales in Q2 2002 are expected to reach $3,379 million, 1.2 percent over Q2 2001.

Taxable sales for the 16 Northwest Florida counties experienced an increase of 1.7 percent in Q1 2002 compared to the same period of last year. Observing the seasonally adjusted quarterly retail sales by county (Table 14A), 12 counties in the region posted strong gains. The highest increase occurred in Washington County with a jump of 17.7 percent, followed by Gulf County and Washington County with 10.7 percent and 9.1 percent increases respectively.

After falling four consecutive quarters last year, sales in Escambia County bounced back in Q1 2002 with a 1 percent increase over Q1 2001. Leon County and Okaloosa County, contributing almost 40 percent of the total regional sales values, achieved 1.1 percent and 2.7 percent increases respectively. Of the four counties that suffered sales drops in Q1 2002, Jefferson County and Bay County lost 6.1 percent and 1.5 percent respectively, and both Calhoun County and Franklin County lost 2.4 percent.

The Q2 2002 forecasts (Table 14A) for the 16 counties suggest that a growth of 3.1 percent will occur in the region.

Liberty County will be the leading county next quarter with 12 percent of increase, followed by Walton, Franklin and Santa Rosa counties. Sales in Escambia County are expected to continue to grow with 1.8 percent increases.

Wal-Mart’s one new store on Blue Angel Parkway and one expanded store on Creighton Road will add more fuel to push the sales up. Leon County and Okaloosa County will also keep their upward trend with 4 percent and 3.2 percent respectively. Bay County will continue to lose its sales with 0.9 percent compared to Q2 2001.

Overall, the projection indicates a good summer season.